Futures
Responsive bets on what’s breaking out in the next 3–7 days, read from today’s emerging signals and graded against what actually happens. Step back through the days to see what Poe called and how it landed.
11%
hit rate
6 hit / 51 miss
5.2
avg lead (days)
how early hits called it
73
forecasts made
16 pending
Experimental: Poe makes forward bets, not facts. Forecasts can be wrong; weight them by confidence and the track record above.
HIGH · 78%
PENDING
Spidey Sense Is Tingling Again
expect within ~3d, by 2026-08-05
Thesis
Spider-Man buzz is compounding, not cooling. Expect a fresh wave of AU cross-platform Spider-Man discourse to crest within ~3 days, riding the 'Brand New Day' anticipation on top of a re-surging 'No Way Home'.
Why: leading indicators
'Spider-Man: No Way Home' is at max strength 99 and still accelerating (velocity +7.5, spark climbing 63 to 99 and holding), while 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day (2026)' is a fresh screen signal at 59. Today already ran spoiler discourse and cross-platform buzz on 30-31 July, so this is a live, corroborated multi-day escalation rather than a one-off. When a legacy film re-accelerates AND its sequel signal lights up simultaneously, AU social nostalgia clips and ranking content spike fast.
Move first
PlayStation should ride the wave now: reactive social tying Marvel's Spider-Man (the game) to the film nostalgia beat, plus a 'best Spidey moment' UGC prompt while No Way Home is peaking. Move before the Brand New Day marketing machine crowds the feed.
MEDIUM · 60%
PENDING
Ted Lasso, Believe The Hype
expect within ~4d, by 2026-08-06
Thesis
Ted Lasso is climbing sharply and should hit a genuine AU conversation peak within ~4 days, likely off a new-season or revival beat driving the feel-good, sport-comfort nostalgia crowd.
Why: leading indicators
'Ted Lasso' is accelerating hard: velocity +12, strength 82, with a clean uninterrupted climb (43 to 82 over six readings). That's one of the steepest sustained accelerations in the screen set, and its warmth/optimism theme travels well with AU 18-45. Unlike The Agency (peaked, velocity -1) or Silo (decaying, -10), this one still has runway before it plateaus.
Move first
AirNZ or Uber could hitch to the 'Believe' feel-good energy: a warm, low-cynicism reactive spot (kindness, team spirit, the underdog road trip). AirNZ's brand tone fits the Lasso optimism almost perfectly, so pre-load a light social moment before the peak.
MEDIUM · 62%
PENDING
Long Weekend, Short Notice
expect within ~4d, by 2026-08-06
Thesis
Picnic Day (NT public holiday) is building as a Futures anchor and will drive a spike in AU long-weekend, outdoor and travel content in the first week of August. Expect the planning and 'where to go' conversation to peak within ~4 days.
Why: leading indicators
'Picnic Day (AU public holiday)' enters strong at 84, the highest strength in the horizon set. Public holidays reliably trigger a predictable pre-event surge in food, outdoor and short-break content 2-4 days out. It pairs neatly with the recent [MACRO] hot-dry-spring El Nino signal from 31 July, which pushes people outdoors early.
Move first
McCain should pre-load reactive picnic and BBQ-side social (frozen sides, easy outdoor catering) to land before the holiday. Tourism Australia can run a short-break 'long weekend near you' push, and Uber can lean into the picnic-supplies and travel-out demand window.
LOW · 40%
PENDING
Camp Miasma Cuts Through The Horror Glut
expect within ~5d, by 2026-08-07
Thesis
Of the crowded 6-7 August cinema slate, the horror titles ('Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma', 'Ice Cream Man', 'The Blood Countess', 'Insidious: Out of the Further') are best placed to break out in AU social. Expect meme and reaction content to spike around the 6 Aug drops.
Why: leading indicators
Multiple horror releases cluster with strong horizon strength: Camp Miasma and Ice Cream Man both at 78, The Blood Countess at 76, Insidious at 50. Horror over-indexes with the 18-45 AU social crowd for shareable reaction and title-meme content, and the dense same-week clustering usually forces one breakout winner. The provocative Camp Miasma title is a natural meme magnet.
Move first
This is a category play more than a roster-fit, but SBS could ride the genre moment with a curated 'cult horror' watch-list content beat as counter-programming. DJI could seed creators making horror-style short films with their kit ahead of the release weekend.